2026 Market Forecast: “Guesses,” Gold, and the Investment Committee’s Outlook – 01/03/2026
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In this episode of More for Your Money, John Berkley and the investment committee reflect on 2025’s 17.8% S&P 500 total return and 64% surge in gold. For 2026, the team shares strategic “guesses,” with S&P 500 outlooks ranging from Greg’s 6,300 to Todd’s bearish 50% decline. Key themes include a shift toward small-caps, energy, and non-US stocks, supported by a 9% dollar decline in 2025. Todd frames gold as a “measuring stick” for purchasing power, noting that market growth is often reflected in “fiat currency terms” rather than real value. John highlights that massive government deficits are distorting the business cycle and delaying the natural market “cleansing” of recessions. The team emphasizes prioritizing math over narrative. Navigating this environment is like sailing in a thick fog; while “hope” is not a strategy, math and history serve as the only reliable compass.
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