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Market Metrics, Economic Bafflement, and the Power of Free Enterprise – 05/30/2026

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John Berkley and the investment committee analyze the surprisingly strong market performance of 2026. Despite significant gains in the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, the team expresses caution as popular metrics like the Shiller CAPE and Buffett indicator reach alert levels. They discuss economic risks, including persistent inflation, a $2 trillion federal spending gap, and the threat of stagflation. The conversation also explores the “K-shaped” economy, where spending from high-income groups continues to drive demand.
A major highlight is a defense of free-market capitalism inspired by a Jeff Bezos interview, emphasizing that business innovation creates more societal value than charity alone. Personal anecdotes comparing the “dark and dreary” reality of socialist East Germany to the dynamic revitalization under capitalism further underscore the importance of free enterprise. The committee concludes by recommending a defensive yet engaged investment strategy.

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